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Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel
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by Aghion, Philippe; Marinescu, Ioana

This paper uses yearly panel data on OECD countries to analyze the relationship between growth and the cyclicality of government debt. We develop new time-varying estimates of the cyclicality of public debt. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) less procyclical public debt growth can have significantly positive effects on productivity growth, in particular when financial development is lower; (ii) public debt growth has become increasingly countercyclical in most OECD countries over the past twenty years, but this trend has been less pronounced in the EMU; (iii) less financially developed or more open economies display less countercyclical public debt growth.

Publication Type: WCFIA Working Paper
Published Date: June 7, 2006
Field of Interest: International Economics
Aghion, Philippe, and Ioana Marinescu. “Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?” Working Paper 2007-8, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 2007.