Faculty Research Overview

In 2004-2005, Professor Rosen will research and write a monograph on imperial strategy, examining the extent to which the grand strategies of the Roman, Qing, and British empires may provide insight into the interstate interactions in hierarchical political environments, perhaps including the environment in which the United States currently operates. He will focus on military issues, intelligence requirements, and questions of imperial legitimacy.

In 2004-2005, while on leave, Professor Toft will continue her research into the durable settlement of civil wars. This research is part of a book manuscript that examines the conditions under which different types of civil war ending-military victory, negotiated settlement, and stalemate/ceasefire-lead to political stability and economic development 10 to 20 years after the cessation of violence.

Ethnic Conflict

Understanding the role of ethnicity in the play of politics and inciting of violence continues to be one of the most pressing issues in the security studies field. Monica Duffy Toft has been investigating why violence emerges in some cases of ethnic conflict, but not others. Her focus has been on the role of territory and what it means to the different actors in an ethnic conflict. Professor Toft finished a book-length manuscript on this topic titled The Geography of Ethnic Conflict: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory.

She is continuing her research into ethnic conflict through an analysis of the role of religion in civil war. Two articles are currently under review. In another article she is coauthoring, Professor Toft seeks to understand the dynamics of self-determination movements and whether they are contagious within states.

Civil War Termination

Professor Toft is continuing her research on civil war termination. She is researching and drafting a book manuscript entitled, Peace Through Victory?: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars. In this project Professor Toft seeks to understand what type of civil war outcomes lead to the most durable settlement. The policy implications of this finding have tremendous consequences for whether and how outside actors should become engaged in mitigating or terminating the violence.

Demography and National Security

In addition to her research on civil wars, Professor Toft has begun a project on the consequences of differential demographic growth within states and its impact on state stability and national security. She has published one article, which examines the consequences of different growth rates among identity groups and uses Israel as a case study. She is working on another article that will be presented at several conferences and submitted to a leading academic journal.

Long-term Strategy Project

This work, which is funded by the Department of Defense and directed by Stephen Rosen, focuses on understanding the way in which unfamiliar actors in the international environment perceive their own strategic position, the behavior of the United States, and then make decisions relevant to the national security of the United States. The new actors include actors within the Islamic world, and actors making decisions about the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons.

Applications of the Biological Sciences to the Analysis of National Security Decision-Making

This ongoing work, funded by the Department of Defense and directed by Stephen Rosen, investigates how disease and medication affects the biochemical state of the individual, as well as natural variations in this state that are the result of the genetic inheritance of individuals as it interacts with social stimuli.

Strategic and Military Planning during Inter-war Periods

This research, funded by the Department of Defense and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs and directed by Monica Toft, investigates military planning under conditions of uncertainty. The organizing framework is the perspective of military planners: do they see themselves as preparing to administer a peace, or preparing to fight a future war? The research is gathered together in the edited volume The Fog of Peace: Military and Strategic Planning under Uncertainty, which is currently under review at a major press.

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