Central America’s Democratic Crisis: Drivers of Backsliding and Sources of Resilience

May 2–3, 2025

This conference is closed to the public and is by invitation only.

Although scholars of Latin American politics have closely studied democratic crises in South America, particularly in Venezuela, they have paid far less attention to the region where democratic setbacks have been greatest: Central America. Central America was the site of extraordinary democratic advances in the 1980s and 1990s: despite a history of authoritarian rule, violent conflict, and chronic underdevelopment, all six Central American countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama—had developed real (if imperfect) democracies by the mid 1990s.
 
These new democracies confronted some extraordinary challenges in the early twenty-first century. In addition to longstanding problems of underdevelopment, economic volatility, extreme inequality, pervasive state weakness, and corruption, the dramatic expansion of criminal gangs and drug trafficking networks led to an extraordinary surge in violent crime. Successive governments’ inability to resolve problems of corruption and insecurity not only led to soaring public discontent but also eroded public trust in political parties, legislatures, and other democratic institutions.
 
Central American democracies responded to these challenges in diverse ways: Nicaragua plunged into outright dictatorship in the early twenty-first century; in El Salvador, a populist experience gave rise to a robust competitive authoritarian regime; in Honduras and Guatemala, backsliding led to unstable authoritarian regimes that recently “slid back” in a more democratic direction. And in Costa Rica and Panama, democracies are under stress but remain intact. 

What explains these diverging regime trajectories? Why has authoritarianism taken root in some Central American cases but not others? Answering these questions should generate new insights into the drivers of democratic backsliding—and sources of democratic resilience—that extend to Latin America and across the globe.

Hotel: Harvard Square Hotel, 110 Mt Auburn St, Cambridge, MA 02138

Participants

• Ronald Alfaro-Redondo (Programa Estado de la Nación and University of Costa Rica)
• Harry Brown Araúz (CIEPS)
• Raquel Chanto (INCAE Business School)
• Abby Córdova (University of Notre Dame)
• Gessica de Freitas (University of Notre Dame)
• Esteban Durán Monge (Programa Estado de la Nación)
• Laura Gamboa (University of Notre Dame)
• Edgar Gutiérrez Aiza (University of Oxford)
• Steve Levitsky (Harvard University)
• James Loxton (University of Sydney)
• Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez (Harvard University)
• Patricio Navia (New York University)
• Lucas Perelló (Florida Atlantic University)
• Omar Sanchez-Sibony (Texas State University)
• Rachel Schwartz (University of Notre Dame and University of Oklahoma)
• Kai Thaler (University of California, Santa Barbara)
• Jorge Vargas-Cullell (Programa Estado de la Nación and University of Costa Rica)
• Christine Wade (Washington College)

Schedule

Friday, May 2, 2025 (Room K354)

08:00 AM / Breakfast

08:30–09:15 AM / Introduction and Overview

• Steven Levitsky (Harvard University)
• Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez (Harvard University)

09:15–10:00 AM / Panama’s Democracy: Transition by Invasion, Consolidation by Negotiation

• Harry Brown Araúz (CIEPS)
• Jamie Loxton (University of Sydney)

10:00–10:45 AM / Costa Rica: Signals of a Stable Democracy in Trouble

• Ronald Alfaro-Redondo (Programa Estado de la Nación and University of Costa Rica)

10:45–11:00 AM Coffee Break

11:00–11:45 AM / Democratic Crisis and Resilience in Contemporary Guatemala

• Rachel A. Schwartz (University of Notre Dame and University of Oklahoma)

11:45–12:30 PM / Stuck in Limbo: Backsliding and Partial Democratic Resurgence in Honduras

• Lucas Perelló (Florida Atlantic University)
• Patricio Navia (New York University)

12:30–01:15 PM Lunch

01:15–02:00 PM / From Captured Peace to Captured State: El Salvador’s Path to (Re)Authoritarianism 

• Christine J. Wade (Washington College)

02:00–02:45 PM / Nicaragua

• Kai Thaler (University of California, Santa Barbara)

02:45–03:30 PM / The State and Democracy in Central America

• Jorge Vargas Cullell (Programa Estado de la Nación and University of Costa Rica)
• Esteban Durán Monge (Programa Estado de la Nación)

03:30–04:00 PM / Coffee Break and Leg Stretch

04:00–04:45 PM / The Elusive Anticorruption-Democracy Nexus: Insights from Central America’s Diverging Democracies

• Raquel Chanto (INCAE Business School)
• Edgar Gutiérrez Aiza (University of Oxford)

04:45–05:30 PM / Does Crime Kill Democracy? Central America in Comparative Perspective

• Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez (Harvard University)

07:00 PM / Dinner
Source Restaurants, 27 Church St., Cambridge, MA 02138

Saturday, May 3, 2025 (Room K262)

08:30 AM / Breakfast

09:00–09:45 AM / Party Systems’ Normative Orientation and Regime Outcomes in Central America

• Omar Sanchez (Texas State University)

09:45–10:30 AM / The Role of Democratic Oppositions

• Laura Gamboa (University of Notre Dame)

10:30–10:45 / AM Coffee Break

10:45–11:30 AM / The Paradox of Democratic Support: How Citizens in Central America Reconcile Democracy and Authoritarianism

• Abby Córdova (University of Notre Dame)
• Gessica de Freitas (University of Notre Dame)

11:30–12:30 PM / Discussion and Lunch

Cosponsored by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, Harvard University.