Science, Technology, and Society Seminar: STS Circle at Harvard

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Date and Time

February 2, 2026
12:15PM - 02:00PM EST

Location

CGIS South, S354

1730 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
A light lunch is provided for those that register by 1:00pm on the Thursday before the event.

Artificial Intelligence Scenarios and Global Governance

Speaker

  • Paul Samson, President, Centre for International Governance Innovation.

Chair

  • Sheila Jasanoff, Faculty Associate. Pforzheimer Professor of Science and Technology Studies; Professor of Environmental Science and Public Policy, Committee on Degrees in Environmental Science and Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School.

Contact

Henry Austin
henryaustin@hks.harvard.edu

Abstract

Policy development, with high stakes and under high uncertainty, can usefully begin with a range of scenarios. Anchored upon AI capability development, five possible scenarios are considered: 1. Stall: similar capabilities as today; 2. Plateau: advance then flat; 3. Fast: more capable than today; 4. Accelerating: Artificial General Intelligence; and 5. Exponential: Artificial Super Intelligence. Governments must prepare for a range of eventualities, potentially within the dynamics of an arms-race.

There are global-scale AI challenges that include: significant cross-border impacts, potentially affecting(unevenly) all countries and humanity, and require international cooperation. Current agreements and negotiations are not on track to meet this need. To address international governance gaps, we propose two-tracks: 1) a collaborative design process to develop the “building blocks” of future international agreements on global AI challenges; and 2) a new Forum for AI Transparency, based an open-governance model. Absent sufficient international governance, a model more akin to nuclear arms control could emerge.

Bio

Paul Samson is President of the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), an independent Canadian think tank working on international governance with a focus on policy solutions in an era of transformative technologies. Previously he served over 20 years with the Government of Canada, including at the deputy minister level. He worked in the Privy Council Office during the time of three different Prime Ministers. At Finance Canada, he served as Canada’s deputy for finance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, was co-chair of the G20 Framework Working Group on the global economy and served on the Board of Directors for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Paul completed a doctorate in international relations at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and his undergrad at the University of British Columbia. He completed post-doctoral studies at Harvard University and was a research associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

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Valuing Accessibility

The Weatherhead Center for International Affairs welcomes individuals with disabilities to participate in its programs and activities. If you would like to request accommodations or have questions about the access provided, please get in touch with the person listed as the contact on the individual event listing in advance of your participation or visit. Requests for Sign Language interpreters and/or CART providers should be made at least two weeks in advance, if possible. Please note that the Weatherhead Center will make every effort to secure services, but that services are subject to availability.